El Nino Effect on Shore Fishing?

[bdb74]

What are we looking at this year from the El Nino? So far I have had a bad time with Shore Fishing and lots of seaweed. The seaweed has been so bad for me that I am not going. I asked a guy with a boat and he said it is going to be epic but is that just for the ocean? What about the shore?

[Gotfish?]

The shoreline fish are not migratory so they will still be here. The warmer water could cause more kelp and seaweed die off. Could be partial die off of some marine species: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/cal ... 040940007/ . Unlikely to be "epic" fishing from the shore.

[Andrew_WOT]

Very informative link @Gotfish? , thanks for sharing.
And we might have more Jaws around, so mind your surrounding.
https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/ ... hurricanes

[mpa_slayer]

Its not even going to be an el nino year. The water temp now is lower than it was in mid march. Same bs happened 2 or 3 years ago was supposedly gonna be an el nino year and it never happened

[Gotfish?]

Actual data: https://shorestations.ucsd.edu/about/scripps-pier/

Water temperature can fluctuate depending on wind and waves but the temperature has been consistently above average.

[Gotfish?]

Odds of an El Nino developing in May-July are now estimated at 82%. Odds of El Nino in December are 96%, could be anything from mild (less likely) to very strong.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
See slide 24 at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.ppt , slightly earlier date than the previous link.

On related topic, betting markets are saying 88% chance that at least one month in 2026 will be the hottest on record.
https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-m ... -on-record

[jwacky]

Unsure if related to El Nino or not but just listened to @crabman Bill's surf fishing report for the weekend and... yikes. High winds, high waves. Just checked the charts and yep, looks like 6' waves Sunday

Lots of reports of heavy grass/seaweed lately, too.

Think I'll sit this weekend out

[professionull]

What are you concerned about based on shore fishing.. constant big swell, currents, wind?

[Neuroshima]

Unsure if related to El Nino or not but just listened to @crabman Bill's surf fishing report for the weekend and... yikes. High winds, high waves. Just checked the charts and yep, looks like 6' waves Sunday

Lots of reports of heavy grass/seaweed lately, too.

Think I'll sit this weekend out

No way, man. Hit the sand on Saturday.

[jwacky]

What are you concerned about based on shore fishing.. constant big swell, currents, wind?

None of those are particularly fun.

I look for incoming/outgoing tide first, but I’ll generally go during my available windows regardless of those. If waves are big, I’m starting to pass because it usually means everything else is messy (current, etc). Too high of a tide hasn’t been much fun (6+ feet). For 8-9 months I’d fish no matter what just to experience all the conditions but I do this for the relaxation and fun more than just trying to catch anything, so conditions that make it stressful are what I’m starting to avoid. It’s been a learning experience, for sure!

[foulhook]

Past El Nino supposedly brought the short fin corvina, cortez bonefish, and trigger fish in are waters, hopefully more fish will be added

[Midnightpass]

Unsure if related to El Nino or not but just listened to @crabman Bill's surf fishing report for the weekend and... yikes. High winds, high waves. Just checked the charts and yep, looks like 6' waves Sunday

Lots of reports of heavy grass/seaweed lately, too.

Think I'll sit this weekend out

Look at the bright side... There hasn't been a bunch of soft (sand) structure lately, and those conditions could very well create some... If the salad isn't too bad afterward, I'll be looking for some nice holes and trenches..
Butch

[Midnightpass]

Past El Nino supposedly brought the short fin corvina, cortez bonefish, and trigger fish in are waters, hopefully more fish will be added

Yea... A few years back, during an El Nino, I caught 2 puffer fish up in LA...
Butch

[professionull]

None of those are particularly fun.

I look for incoming/outgoing tide first, but I’ll generally go during my available windows regardless of those. If waves are big, I’m starting to pass because it usually means everything else is messy (current, etc). Too high of a tide hasn’t been much fun (6+ feet). For 8-9 months I’d fish no matter what just to experience all the conditions but I do this for the relaxation and fun more than just trying to catch anything, so conditions that make it stressful are what I’m starting to avoid. It’s been a learning experience, for sure!

I don't recall the surf and currents being too strong along with the wind on the last true El Nino. More or less it was just a ton of south current pushing warm water up the coast and getting a bunch of tropical rain. I know there were a couple days out of the event where there was 10ft surf but for the most part it seemed relatively calm and glassy on the ocean. This year it seems like every day at 12pm the wind blows much harder than it usually does which may be the early warning signs of what is to come

[jwacky]

Unsure if related to El Nino or not but just listened to @crabman Bill's surf fishing report for the weekend and... yikes. High winds, high waves. Just checked the charts and yep, looks like 6' waves Sunday

Lots of reports of heavy grass/seaweed lately, too.

Think I'll sit this weekend out

Look at the bright side... There hasn't been a bunch of soft (sand) structure lately, and those conditions could very well create some... If the salad isn't too bad afterward, I'll be looking for some nice holes and trenches..
Butch

Great point!

[kastmaster]

The most informed synopsis for this autumn's broad scale conditions.
https://weatherwest.com/archives/43880

[Nelson 1]

I was at Mission Beach Thursday morning throwing a lucky craft. No luck. And no grass or seaweed. A lot of rip currents.

[Gotfish?]

The most informed synopsis for this autumn's broad scale conditions.
https://weatherwest.com/archives/43880

The best weather forecasts are those made by hedge funds (not public information). Weather scientists can make as much as one million a year at these places. Hedge funds benefit (disaster capitalism) when other people do not believe in climate change, El Nino or weather forecasts.

Accurate weather forecasts are worth billions to the economy, not just to hedge funds. If we had really good forecasts for months into the future, it would help farmers pick the right planting time and crops, oil and gas companies to know how much stock to have for the winter and insurance companies to more competitively price products. Unfortunately, funding for weather services has been cut.

https://www.ft.com/content/d92e7f30-b4d ... 25a6b1a6=1
https://gizmodo.com/hedge-funds-are-hir ... 2000770164
https://www.google.com/search?q=weather ... e&ie=UTF-8

[kastmaster]

The most informed synopsis for this autumn's broad scale conditions.
https://weatherwest.com/archives/43880

The best weather forecasts are those made by hedge funds (not public information). Weather scientists can make as much as one million a year at these places. Hedge funds benefit (disaster capitalism) when other people do not believe in climate change, El Nino or weather forecasts.

Accurate weather forecasts are worth billions to the economy, not just to hedge funds. If we had really good forecasts for months into the future, it would help farmers pick the right planting time and crops, oil and gas companies to know how much stock to have for the winter and insurance companies to more competitively price products. Unfortunately, funding for weather services has been cut.

https://www.ft.com/content/d92e7f30-b4d ... 25a6b1a6=1
https://gizmodo.com/hedge-funds-are-hir ... 2000770164
https://www.google.com/search?q=weather ... e&ie=UTF-8

Hedge funds would still need to rely upon publicly available data, which includes NOAA data, universities, etc. This was the fallacy behind trying to 'privatize' weather forecasting nationally, this notion that the loss of publicly funded data would be quickly replaced by the private sector. NOAA also relies upon European models to forecast mesoscale patterns. The U.S. does not operate in a vacuum. Commercial airline flights worldwide are collecting weather data as we speak.

[Alldaylong]

Unsure if related to El Nino or not but just listened to @crabman Bill's surf fishing report for the weekend and... yikes. High winds, high waves. Just checked the charts and yep, looks like 6' waves Sunday

Lots of reports of heavy grass/seaweed lately, too.

Think I'll sit this weekend out

Look at the bright side... There hasn't been a bunch of soft (sand) structure lately, and those conditions could very well create some... If the salad isn't too bad afterward, I'll be looking for some nice holes and trenches..
Butch

I feel like ever since they dredged the beaches a couple of years ago, much of the structure has been buried under all that sand. Lots of places that used to hold nice structures have become a flat desert.